Platform technology Essay

Servlets are supported by the Java Sun platform technology of option for expanding and improving web servers and they provide a component-based, platform independent method for making web applications, without the confines of the performance of CGI programs. They are sustained in nearly all web servers. There are many popular servlets which are available in the market at the moment. JRun is a J2EE application server, initially made in 1997 as a Java Servlet engine by Live Software and later on bought by Allaire, who brought out the first J2EE compliant edition. It was obtained by Macromedia prior to its 2001 takeover of Allaire, and later by Adobe Systems when it bought Macromedia in 2005. Its latest patch Updater 7 was released by Adobe in 2007. Updater 7 added Sun JDK 1. 6 support, Apache 2. 2 support, Windows Vista/IIS7 support and Mac OS X 10. 4 on Intel support. This feature differentiates it from other servlets. Similarly, iPlanet was a product that was used mutually by Sun Microsystems and Netscape Communications Corporation when sharing out software and services as part of a non-limited cross marketing contract. AOL has continued to market the directory and certificate server products below the Netscape brand. After AOL joined with Netscape, technology analysts conjectured that AOL’s major concern was the netscape. com website, which some thought to have replaced the Internet Explorer browser. Apache Tomcat is also an open source Servlet made by the Apache Software Foundation (ASF). Tomcat uses the Java Servlet and the Java Server Pages (JSP) provisions from Sun Microsystems and that gives it the edge over other servlets. As far as choosing one Servlet for our organization is concerned it depends on the platform technology. And since JRun is a J2EE application server therefore I would choose it over others. REFRENCES http://www. wikipedia. org QUESTION: Research some of the popular Servlet engines (Tomcat, JRun, IPlanet, etc). What features are there that make one Servlet engine better than the other? How would you go about choosing one for your organization?

Battling Boycotts Essay

1) Question: What type of boycotts the article is addressing? Answer: The type for the boycott is the company’s nationality, it would seem that nothing could be done. The business is boycotted through no fault of its own. And a growing class of boycotts has very little to do with the actions or policies of an individual company. Instead they are related to the company’s country of origin. After all, it is neither easy nor desirable to change the nationality of a company to shield it from a boycott attempt. 2) Question: What are the two dimensions along which the four strategies are developed? Explain? Answer: The two dimensions along which the four strategies are developed are: the visibility of the brand and the intensity of the boycott. Brand visibility is defined as an extent to a brand which is related to a country in its customers’ minds all over the world. The more visible the brand, the more likely it is to be targeted by boycotters. In people’s eyes, visibility is very important. For example, the brand is very popular in a given country where the customers don’t strongly consider about its original country. However, another situation is that, the foreign brand is associated with a country in customers’ minds. Intensity can be measured in terms of size, duration and aggressiveness. Size which means how many people are boycotting the brand or product. Duration refers to how long the boycott is likely to continue. And aggressiveness takes into account whether, in addition to boycotting products, violent acts are conducted against the outlets or offices of the company being boycotted. 3) Question: What strategies does the article suggest for businesses to adopt to handle boycotts of this type? Answer: The strategies that the article suggest for businesses to adopt to handle boycotts of this type are: emphasizing their connections to the local community, to countering misinformation with advertising and public-relations campaigns, to simply adopting a low profile. McDonald’s is a high-visibility U.S. brand that has faced boycotts in different parts of the world. An anti-U.S. boycott was initiated in Egypt in recent years and has spread to other Arab countries. This action was because of the supporting to Israel by U.S.. Thus, local McDonald established some management to connect with their communities including tailoring menus to local tastes, including the introduction by McDonald’s Egypt of the McFalafel sandwich, which was launched with the help of an ad jingle by a famous Egyptian singer. McDonald’s franchisees in the Middle East and elsewhere also have long made contributions to local charities. What’s more, McDonald’s franchisees also presented a local face in Islamic countries, Argentina, and the Philippines, such as launched TV ads, wore traditional clothing, changed slogan and set charitable programs. For P&G, they also changed logo and set some slogans to respond quickly to the rumors. In the case of a high-visibility brand facing a low-intensity boycott we suggest a strategy of monitoring and blending in. in a high-intensity boycott environment, a company with low visibility may be better off adopting a strategy of lowering its profile, rather than actively trying to offset any potential damage by touting its local connections. For example, a Saudi furniture store in Khobar that sells American furniture has tried lowering its visibility by changing its name from the Saudi-American Furniture Store to the Saudi Furniture Store. Because furniture isn’t often distinctly associated with countries in the public mind, at least in the Middle East. A low-visibility company in a low-intensity boycott environment can simply maintain the status quo. But, they still must pay attention to the potential threats. 4) Question: In your opinion, what can companies do to influence their home governments policies that may affect their success in international markets? Answer: In my point of view, I think we can not leave our own national interests in dealing with foreign affairs of other countries. Of course, we are not only talking about the national interests, but also the fact of reason in a rational and favorable circumstances to select the struggle strategy. In addition, we must also realize that, in today’s globalization economic, countries in economic are interdependent which is extremely popular. To be successful, there are some factors. First, they must make sure they have an appropriate team, such as the CEO, the CFO, legal counsel, auditors, accounting. Then, they have to fit the actual schedule and the host countries’ customs. Secondly, they need to know some of the weaknesses in their own businesses, identify problems that may arise in other countries, employ a high-quality team, and improve operational efficiency. Finally, there is a high level of management support.

Essay On Cinema Entertains As Well As Educates The Masses Essay

Free essays on corruption wikipedia in hindi for students india-myanmar strategic will the anti -corruption movement bring change to india? as of this writing, wikipedia contains over 41 million articles in english and ranks as one of the. Students should not be permitted to use cell phones in school using cell phones tags: argumentative persuasive argument essays :: 5 sources cited, 1319. Free essays on argumentative essays on domestic violence for students browse topics sign in the same question still remains, though, for many what is. Observation essay graphic organizer or unusual dbq graphic creative create an illustration of targeted behavior have completed the main idea study guides. Though you won’t be limited to these topics for the contest, you’ll see that our how would you feel about a computer grading your essays?. Spanish dictator francisco franco lay dying, and premiered in madrid’s conde duque theatre, even boasts an empty swimming pool, a symbol of sensual pleasures lost or unfulfilled i’m the author of the essay above. James ramsay, an essay on the treatment and conversion of african slaves in the british sugar colonies london, 1784, p 173 an examination of the. Social context also influences the way something is viewed, my investigation found cheating to be more widespread and essay on my mom is my best friend. Just be certain you write argumentative essay ap english use what you’ve examine and you’ll write argumentative essay ap english find smooth. Can we write there isessaywriter writes both admission essays and school argumentative essay topics an essay about english as a global language how. The results of the sat cr + math and/or act the quality of the personal essay one academic teacher or guidance counselor letter of recommendation. Below given are some helpful tips on how to write a good abortion argumentative essay feel free to use this manual at your convenience. Looking for effective and simple topics for your argumentative essay? television, violence and censorship society has been bombarded with violence from.

Criminal Justice Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words - 9

Criminal Justice - Essay Example Nevertheless there are those who feel violated once their rights are ignored, including in safety situations (Barnett, 54). The main objective of the public order advocates is to protect the law abiding citizen in the society from harm. Such individuals believe that under certain conditions that involve a criminal threat to public order, the society’s interest ought to take precedence over the individual rights (Barnett, 54). In my opinion, individual rights are important as one can have their individual rights and still keep safety in a society. Individual rights are constitutional and are assured to the citizens under the constitution. Constitutional rights are taken to be basic rights but, not as absolute rights. For instance, one has his freedom of religion unless his religious belief is infringing on the rights of other citizens. For instance, if ones religious beliefs allow him to kill someone as a sacrifice to his God, then his freedom of religion can be restricted (Barnett, 59). Ever since 11 September 2001 there has been a lot of questions on individual rights versus public safety. The Patriot Act has an effect on foreign travelers more than anybody else as it denies due process to the foreigner visitor. This act is not constitutional since the American Government is supposed to give due process to everybody. Law enforcement bodies have to still get a warrant to conduct searches but probable cause is more lenient than before (Barnett, 59). Majority of the people have a belief that individual rights ought to be sacrificed for the safety of the public. However, this is a dangerous move since it insinuates that the government is not supposed to abide by the procedures and policies that are set by the constitution. The import of this is that the government can then become corrupt. The rights of an individual will trump public safety but a peaceful society can still be sustained with no denial of

Immanuel Kants Universalizability Test Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1250 words

Immanuel Kants Universalizability Test - Essay Example According to the research findings, it can, therefore, be said that the Universalizability test checks for the contradiction of the maxim in either concept or in will. Contradiction in concept involves the fact that the maxim is unable to meet the threshold of being regarded as a universal law without it presenting a contradiction while contradiction in will involves a situation where the maximum cannot be termed as universal law because its will contradicts itself. Perfect duty is the resultant from maxims that fails the test through the contradiction in concept whiles those that fail through the contradiction in will results to an imperfect duty. The universalizability test provides a ground for determining the moral acceptance of actions. It provides that an act that contradicts itself is not morally acceptable and maxims that can be universalized are morally good. The provisions of the test are based on the generality that individuals have the same moral obligations under the sam e moral situations. The universalizability test involves three basic steps. Firstly, a maxim has to be formulated in order for it to be tested, is then universalized and finally checked for consistency. The failure of universalizability of a maxim is demonstrated by lack of consistency and vice versa. Kant mentions that a maxim that cannot be universalized consistently is ‘practically irrational’. Therefore, the maxim that embarrassment can emanate from the incidence cannot be generalized whatsoever. It is apparent that actions are motivated by either morality or the person’s inclination; the issue of embarrassment does not fall in either of these. The ultimate result of such a situation is embarrassment since the individual will not be able to fulfill what they had promised; it will be unfair and irrational to universalize such an act. Another failure by the act is that it does not have a moral worth in the maxim it is based on, but instead its morality is based on its purpose (avoiding embarrassment). This means that the act of giving false promise is not morally acceptable because of its consequences; therefore the act cannot be translated to all individuals in the name of avoiding embarrassment. It is common sense that the action of giving false information is contrary to the expectations because it is contrary to duty. In addition, their actions are not motivated by duty but instead an opportunity to avoid duty. This is why the person goes ahead to give false promise, a strategy that according to them will help in avoiding the responsibility that comes with the task ahead of them. Kant’s argument demonstrate that the act cannot be whatsoever universalized, its motivations are misplaced hence cannot be done by people under similar conditions all over the world. The motivation behind giving false promise is the fact that a person is able to avoid embarrassment for the time being. In order to demonstrate the universalizability of a n act, the maxim thereof is universalized. It must be something that is sustainable and consistent, giving false promise in itself is inconsistent, and it is a matter of time before the truth is known.

Modernism and Postmodernism Research Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1250 words

Modernism and Postmodernism - Research Paper Example The researchers of modernism have always noted a special interest of its members in creating new forms, defiantly opposed to the harmonic forms of classical art, as well as emphasis on the subjectivity of the modernist worldview. The first modernists are the people of the late 19th century raised by the general crisis of European culture. Many of them rejected the methods of social and political radicalism in the change of lifestyle, but they were all ardent supporters of the spiritual revolution, which, in their view, was inevitably born by the crisis of the old world. Spiritual revolution, as a new quality of consciousness and a new concept of life, demanded a new ideological platform. This platform was formulated on the basis of Henri Bergson’s intuitionism, Nietzscheanism, Edmund Husserl’s phenomenology, Sigmund Freud’s and Carl Jung’s psychoanalysis, Soren Kierkegaard’s and Martin Heidegger’s existentialism. The works of these authors no t only cemented the ideological platform of modernist art searches in the period, but allowed this artistic school to act retrospectively, capturing the events of preceding culture, and prospectively, leaving the field for experiments in the future (postmodernism). Modernism, fighting for liberation and renewal of forms in art, could not exist without common ties with the history of culture, recognizing in this way the principles of historicism in its own trend: â€Å"the creation of a usable past was a key means of both coming to terms with and keeping at bay the pressures and the alleged chaos of the modern world at the turn of the twentieth century†.... ly confronted with the further development of the qualities generated not by modernism, but by the Romantic era of the French Revolution and radical sentimentalism of Johann Herder and Gotthold Lessing. This, for example, is the emphasis on the place of the individual consciousness in life in the cosmos. However, the romantic individualism of the 18th century and modernist individualism are fundamentally different phenomena. In romanticism the individual was either the owner of all spiritual riches of the universe, or this individual grieved about the unavailability of absolute values and universal ideals not denying the possibility of their existence. Modernists, on the contrary, recognized the insolubility of these issues, came to a denial of the spiritual and moral â€Å"absolutes.† At the same time, they tried to revive the myth-creating method, which, in their opinion, was able to restore the integrity of the organic and human life in a single cosmological system by the m eans of art. The poetry of modernism had a deep sympathy to the ideas of a new, mystical ideas and myth. In the effort to speak the language of new images the symbolists did not reject the traditions of classical poetry, but on the contrary, tried to build a new language based on ancient archaic images. Modernist poets paid a lot of attention to classical mythology (Paul Valery, Thomas Eliot), national folkloric characters (William Yates), ancient esoteric teachings and their modern modifications, like theosophy or anthroposophy (Yates, for example, created his own mystical system). The foundation of the modernist prose was laid by the Austrian writer Franz Kafka. According to him, the whole world order is most tragic and hostile to man, who is powerless and doomed to suffer. Plots of Kafka’s

The Bedrock of our Lives Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

The Bedrock of our Lives - Essay Example Indeed, in the fast-paced movement of the modern world, we need family to keep us grounded and give us a place to call home. First of all, our family has been with us from the start and has seen us through our development in life. Before we could get started in our careers, before we become successful people in whatever fields of endeavour we explore, before we meet all our friends, our family was there to guide us through the early stages of our life. That means that they accept us no matter what, despite our shortcomings. We all have heard stories of young people who left their homes to rebel against their parents, blaming them for some imagine grievance, and believing that they can make it in the world. Some of them fare well, earning money and establishing themselves in a good career. Some, however, find themselves involved in all sorts of vices and moving in the wrong crowd. Either way, at some point in their lives, they will find themselves drawn back home – a place of f amiliarity and safety, a place that has accepted them for who they are. The truth is that family reminds us of a more innocent time in our lives, it takes us back to our childhood when things were so much simpler and safer. The second point that I make when I say that family is most important is that a large part of a person’s emotional state is determined by whether or not he or she has a happy family. It is easy to take our families for granted when we are successful, when we are surrounded by friends, when we immerse ourselves in other preoccupations. The truth of the matter is, however, when we lose our families or when family relationships break up, it is one of the biggest causes of depression and even suicide. In an important study conducted by Jerry Jacobs and Joseph Teicher entitled â€Å"Broken Homes and Social Isolation in Attempted Suicides of Adolescents† (1967) it was found that that after looking at the life-histories of patients who had attempted to com mit suicide and comparing it to the life-histories of those who had not committed suicide, a great proportion of those in the former group come from broken homes or had unhappy family relationships. So you see, this means that while it is easy to take family relationships for granted when our family is stable and whole, when the links that bind are broken, it causes a great sense of personal devastation – indeed, to the point that it can drive one to commit suicide. It is clear therefore, that more than any other thing, family is the most important thing in life. Thirdly, our families have our back, no matter what. That is the power of relationships within the family. One may have plenty of friends to spend good times with, but how many people will stick by your side during the bad times? If, in the middle of the night, you find yourself in the unfortunate situation of being arrested and thrown to prison, chances are, the first person you would call is a family member. That i s because of the absolute certainty we have that our family is going to be there not only in the good times but also in the bad. They cheer for us when we are at our best, and give us steady and unconditional comfort when we are at our worst. They say that life is a competition: we are constantly competing with other people for a variety of things, be it a job promotion, academic honors, winning affection from the opposite sex. Some people, therefore, will want to bring you down in order to get ahead. Our families, however, are our safe haven from the mini-olympiads playing out in the

Gay and Lesbian Persecution in Germany, 1933-45 Essay

Gay and Lesbian Persecution in Germany, 1933-45 - Essay Example There are no records about how many men perished in those concentration camps and it is very hard to looks for an exact number of how many bore the cruel treatment (Grau, Claudia & Patrick 1995). They were not only punished by the German soldiers instead they also received persecutions from other prisoners, they were beaten to death. Homosexuals in forced labor camps were assigned grueling and blood curdling jobs on the sentence of â€Å"extermination through work† these individuals faced worst punishments than other Jewish inmates in the camps. Estimates of 100,000 men and women homosexuals were arrested in the years between 1933 and 1945 out of which 50,000 were persecuted. Although it is hard to specify, how many of them perished in the concentration camps from hard labor and death sentences. After the end of war these persecutions and deaths were unacknowledged by many countries but later on some men were arrested on the basis of evidence found that dated back to the years of Nazi. It only happened very recently in 2002 that the German government tendered an apology to the gay and lesbian community of their acts. However, these events in the history still serve as a huge controversy and offense among the homosexual community of the society. There are many German famous Jews who have made their mark in the history. Most German Jews either left the country or they were murdered in the Holocaust. Some of the very famous German Jews in history are divided according to their fields.

Labs H, P, & S Lab Report Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

Labs H, P, & S - Lab Report Example Straight pins were then placed along line IB as shown in the diagram below. After which the glass plate was returned, and the rest of the experimental arrangement moved near the edge of the table. The pins were then sighted through the glass plate, and ruler aligned along the sightline and a straight line drawn along the rule and labeled B’R. The glass plate was again removed, and line BB’ drawn. The Normals at B and B’ were drawn, and angles of incidence and refraction compared. SKETCH: I N B B’ RESULTS: Trial I-B-N (Angle of incidence) R-B’-N (Angle of refraction) 1 60 34 ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSION From the above table it can be seen that the angle of incidence is greater than the angle of refraction. Therefore, this experiment demonstrated the following concepts of refraction: 1. Angle of incidence is greater than the angle of refraction (Shipman). Law of refraction (Snell’s La): Where: n1 refractive index of air =1 n 2 refractive index of gl ass. Theoretical refractive index of glass= 1.52 Therefore: Moments of Force (Experiment H) PURPOSE: The purpose of this experiment was to demonstrate the concepts of equilibrium and moments of force. ... The second weight was moved along the meter until it balanced. The weights and distances at which the meter balanced were recorded. The experiment was repeated using different weights and distances from the fulcrum, and their distances and weights recorded as shown in the result table below. SKETCH C Distance 1 Distance 2 Weight on the left Weight on the right Counterclockwise moments Fulcrum Clockwise moments RESULTS AND ANALSIS Moments= Force X Distance Principles of moments: counterclockwise moments= clockwise moments (Shipman). Therefore, Counterclockwise moments in the first case= (10 X 4) + (10 X10) = 140ozcm Clockwise moments in the first case = (15 X 30) + (x X 39) = 450+39x X = -7.9487oz Can Goods Can Goods Can Goods Miscellaneous objects Left Side Weight (1) Left Side Distance (1) Left Side Weight (2) Left Side Distance (2) Total Left side Moment Right Side Weight (1) Right Side Distance (1) Right Side Distance (2) Right Side Weight (2) Total Right side Moment 1 10 oz 4 cm 10 oz 10 cm 140 15 oz 30 cm 39 cm -7.9487oz 140 2 15 oz 22 cm 15 oz 9 cm 465 4.5 oz 45 cm 32 cm 8.2031oz 465 3 4.5 oz 6 cm 4.5 oz 5 cm 24.5 16 oz 35 cm 50 cm -10.71oz 24.5 4 24 oz 23 cm 24 oz 8 cm 744 9.5 oz 49 cm 44 cm 6.3295oz 744 5 16 oz 5 cm 16 oz 9 cm 224 24 oz 28 cm 28 cm -16oz 224 6 9.5 oz 3 cm 9.5 oz 5 cm 76 10 oz 9 cm 47 cm -0.2979oz 76 Electrical consumption (Experiment S) PURPOSE: The purpose of this experiment was to determine the cost of electrical consumption of various home electrical devices. PROCEDURE: The following equipment and machinery were used: 12 home electrical appliances (Smart TV, Toshiba Laptop and refrigerator among others), and a copy of the recent electricity bill. The home appliances to be used in

Narrative Essay Example for Free

Narrative Essay When joining the armed forces, you never quite know what will happen or what to expect next. It can be an amazing or a gruesome journey, but it depends on how you want it to be. At the beginning the journey might seems scary and intimidating, but as time goes on, you soon get use to the lifestyle and learn a great deal from the experience. Before I joined in November 2008, I was going through a marital problem, I was weak, intimidating, and I have no one or where to turn to. I applied for job in so many places with no luck, due to me moving to the States three years before applying for the jobs, giving birth, and also I was a staying home mom going to school. But as time went by I couldn’t take it any longer, so I decided looking in to joining the military. When I joined, I wanted to be independent, strong, care for my daughter, and to learn something new without being intimidated by anyone in anyway. I actually entered the Basic Combat training on the 15th of November 2008, when the plane dropped us at the South Carolina air port and, the bus took us from there to Fort Jackson. The bus finally pulled up outside the in-processing building in Fort Jackson South Carolina by 12:30am. All I could think about was my little girl, how she was sleeping, what was she thinking about when I left, did she cried herself to sleep, can I stay without my daughter for a day, and what in God’s name I just got myself into. We were all tired and sleepy, some of us looked like we have been deprived of sleep for a week, but we all came there for a reason. As the bus driver open the door a male drill sergeant stepped into the buss, and started screaming and yelling at us to get off the bus. I never saw people who have been sleeping and look so tired to move that fast, but everyone was scrambling all over each other looking for an exit, because no one want to be the first to get chewed up. As we stepped out of the bus, we formed two lines, one with the girls and one with the boys. As we stood there, I was scared, nervous; my heart was pounding so fast, because I have never been in that position before in my life. I felt like my neck tense up, which made my head feels like it was about to fall of my body, but I was telling myself that I can do this, and reminding myself of the reason why I was here. We were out there for thirty minutes before they put us in a room, and sat us down according to our numbers, and were we came from. We were given a book called the smart book, which mean it has to be with us all day, and learn what the book says. It was intense: we had to learn so many things throughout our stay in Basic Training. We got our pt uniform (Physical Training gear) that early morning, and we went to sleep by 2:15am. It was a scary and crazy experience. I slept but we had to wake up about 6am, because we have to go through so many in-processing. I was so tired, my eyes were puffy, and hurt, my ankles hurt, but I have to toughen it up. We had to get tested for diseases, eye testing, and a number of other things. All those time, I thought about my little girl a lot, I cried every day, because I have never been separated from child since I gave birth to her, and that was the first time I have ever been away from her. I wondered what she was doing, how she feared, if she was eating the way she was supposed to, how much she missed me, even though I was only gone for 6 days, I felt so alone without my daughter. We had to wake up very early in the morning by 0040, stood in parade rest, in the cold for 4 hours with just pt pant, long shirt, and jacket. That did not help with the cold, because it was so cold, that my fingers were frozen, I could not felt it moving. We have no phone privilege during the reception, because we were being baby sit by the drill sergeant most of the time, and when I said being baby sit, I mean being smoked, pushed up, sit up, floor rocate, you name it, but you can’t let them see crying, because when they, you will be sorry for shedding a tears. All this time we were at a place called reception which was for 4 days, but we spent 6days, where all the loose ends with our paper work were done. The actual physical training was done at a different place in Fort Jackson. The sergeants were still very tough on us. About a month into the training I found myself used to the routine, even though the journey was tough, I endured everything. I hated pt, because we ran a lot, and my ankle hurt, but I kept pushing myself. My pt sucks at the beginning, but my sergeant won’t let me fail, because she was always on me, making sure that, I do not fail. I failed my first pt, second pt, third pt, but I passed at the end, with a good percentage. Before we knew we were making friends, looking out for each other, laughing together, and getting ready to graduate to go to AIT. Which is Advance Individual Training? But there were some ladies who cannot stand each other; there were time of argument, gossiping, jealousness, but we all live under the same roof and trained together. I endure the most horrifying road match, training, being smoked by my drill sergeant, and the long pt. Most times, I broke down and cried, because I thought that was a punishment, but looking back today, it was a training that was mean to save my life and others too. I become a very strong and independent woman, whom no one can intimidate no matter. I can stand up for myself in any situation, and I don’t let anyone take advantage of me.

Oral Health Problems In Children Health And Social Care Essay

Oral Health Problems In Children Health And Social Care Essay Dental caries is the most common oral health problem in children. It is not a new phenomenon in children. Dental caries can arise in early childhood as an aggressive tooth decay that affects the primary teeth of infants and toddlers. Caries constitutes the single most common chronic disease of childhood, affecting as many as 40-50% of U.S. and British children (Pitts et al., 2007) and 60-90% of children worldwide between the ages of 2 and 11 years (Donahue et al., 2005). Dental caries is the localised destruction of susceptible dental hard tissues by acidic by-products from bacterial fermentation of dietary carbohydrates (Fejerskov and Kidd, 2003). The signs of the carious demineralisation are seen on the hard dental tissues, but the disease process is initiated within the bacterial biofilm (dental plaque) that covers a tooth surface. Moreover, the very early changes in the enamel are not detected with traditional clinical and radiographic methods. The disease is initially reversible and can be halted at any stage, even when some dentine or enamel is destroyed (cavitation), provided that enough biofilm can be removed. Dental caries is a chronic disease that progresses slowly in most people. The disease can be seen in both the crown (coronal caries) and root (root caries) portions of primary and permanent teeth, and on smooth as well as pitted and fissured surfaces. It can affect enamel, the outer covering of the crown; cementum, the outermost layer of the root; and dentine, the tissue beneath both enamel and cementum. Caries in primary teeth of preschool children is commonly referred to as early childhood caries. ECC is an alarming problem because the disease is so common and widespread amongst young children. Example, study done by (Zahara et al., 2010) prevalence of caries among preschoolers age 6 and 5 in Malaysia was 60%. And at rural Manitoba community the prevalence of ECC was 44% (Schroth and Moffatt, 2005). Previously, caries in the children was described by a variety of terms including nursing bottle caries, nursing caries, baby bottle caries, baby bottle tooth decay, milk bottle syndrome, and prolonged nursing habit caries. But the new terminology, Early Childhood Caries (ECC) helps us to better reflect that this problem is multifactorial etiologic process not only due to inappropriate feedings methods (Warren, 2008; Ismail 2008). Great needs are need for uniformity when diagnosing and reporting the early childhood caries condition, especially for research purposes. In this respect, a workshop was held in April 1999 in Bethesda, Maryland. In a report for this meeting, (Drury et al., 1999) defined the early childhood caries (ECC) as the presence of 1 or more decayed (noncavitated or cavitated lesions), missing (due to caries), or filled tooth surfaces in any primary tooth in a child 71 months of age or younger. In children younger than 3 years of age, any sign of smooth-surface caries is indicative of severe early childhood caries (S-ECC). From ages 3 through 5, 1 or more cavitated, missing (due to caries), or filled smooth surfaces in primary maxillary anterior teeth or a decayed, missing, or filled score of à ¢Ã¢â‚¬ °Ã‚ ¥4 (age 3), à ¢Ã¢â‚¬ °Ã‚ ¥5 (age 4), or à ¢Ã¢â‚¬ °Ã‚ ¥6 (age 5) surfaces constitutes S-ECC. 2.2 Etiology of early childhood caries Dental caries is an infectious and transmissible disease. Dental caries is a multifactorial disease that starts with microbiological shifts within the complex biofilm and is affected by salivary flow and composition, exposure to fluoride, consumption of dietary sugars, and by preventive behaviours (cleaning teeth). Caries is the result from prolong imbalance in the demineralisation and remineralisation process in the oral cavity. Dissolution of tooth structure by high level of acid concentration which produced by the metabolism of dietary carbohydrate by oral bacteria will promote a demineralisation of tooth structure when the pH of plaque drops below the critical level (pH 5.5) (Riva and Loveren, 2003). However, occurrence of dental caries is not as simple as that. The natural protective factors will try to repair the mechanism by promote remineralisation. It was helps by saliva which play a major role in protecting the teeth from acid challenge. The protective factors of the saliva are, the effective bicarbonate buffering affect, the flow and oral clearance rate and Ca2+, PO43- and fluoride ion contain in the saliva (Mount and Hume, 1998). Reposition of mineral (remineralisation) will occur after the pH of plaque rises (Riva and Loveren, 2003). Development of dental caries occurs when susceptible tooth surface colonized with cariogenic bacteria and present of dietary source of sucrose or refined sugar is present. (Axelson, 2000, Caufield and Griffen, 2000). Generally, it can illustrate under Figure 2.1 below; ETIOLOGY 001 Figure 2.1: Development of dental caries (Keyes, 1960) 2.2.1 Dental Plaque Dental plaque plays a major role in contributing a dental caries. Dental plaque is an accumulation of bacteria and intercellular matrix that form the biofilm that adheres to the surfaces of teeth and other oral structures in the absence of effective oral hygiene (Harris et al., 2009). 2.2.2 Dietary factor Diet plays an important role in preventing and promoting oral diseases including dental caries. Dental caries is a modern, life style dependent disease because of fermentable of carbohydrate. In populations which highly exposed to high sucrose containing food manifested with most severe forms caries (Caufield and Griffen, 2000). Increase frequency of carbohydrate intake will increase the caries risk especially in populations with poor oral hygiene habits and lack exposure to the fluoride. However, in populations with good oral hygiene and expose to fluoride either systemic or topical, frequency of diet intake will become a weak risk factor (Axelson, 2000). 2.2.3 Microbiologic factor Fitzgerald and Keyes in year 1960, persons who firstly demonstrate that the dental disease is an infectous disease and can be transmissible. The sources of bacteria that cause dental caries derived from bacterial populations in the oral cavity named normal flora. The most important bacteria in development dental caries are the mutans streptococci. Mutans streptococci are acidogenic and can adhere to tooth surface. It also can produce extracellular and intracellular polysaccharides from sucrose. So, it represent that mutans streptococci fulfill all the requirements of caries to induce bacteria (Axelson, 2000). Mutans streptococci and other bacteria colonies will colonize the oral cavity after emergance of infants first tooth(Caufield and Griffen, 2000). With present of fermentation of carbohydrate, bacteria pathogens will produce lactic acid, and this acid dissolves the hydroxyapatite crystal structure of the tooth (Caufield and Griffen, 2000). Newborn baby usually have a sterile mouth. Transmission of the microbes to the mouth can be derived from water, food, and other nutritious fluid, but the main route is via saliva. Studies have shown that the transmission of oral streptococci and Gram-negative species in children predominantly from the behaviour of mothers and primary caregivers through their intimate contact, sharing and tasting foods on a spoon or pacifier (Caufield et al., 1993). Infants acquired Mutans streptococci at a median age of 26 months. High level of Mutans streptococci in mothers saliva will put their infants to be acquired by these bacteria earlier. It is means that infants exhibit levels of Mutans streptococci corresponding to their mothers level (Caufield et al., 1993). Because of that, mothers need to be educating on how the caries transmissible and the importance of have good dental practice for themselves their childrens. 2.3 Determinants of oral health in children There were correlation between the etiologic factor in dental caries, determinants of caries (diet, fluoride exposure, microbial species) and involvement of cofounders in dental caries such as socio economic status, education level, knowledge, attitudes and behavior as Figure 2.2 below. fejerkov 001 Figure 2.2: Schematic illustration of the determinants of caries process. (Adapted from Fejeskov and Manji, 1990) 2.3.1 Socioeconomic factors Socioeconomic factors especially educational levels become the most important external factors related to dental caries nowadays (Axelson, 2000). There is a strong correlation between incidence of caries in children and the socioeconomic status of the families of those children. That is, children with caries tend to come from low-income or lower socioeconomic backgrounds and lower parental educational level (Leake et al., 2008, Finlayson et al., 2007, Schroth and Moffatt, 2005). 2.3.2 Behavioural factors Behavioural factors such as frequency of consumption of sugar daily, tooth brushing behaviour (Leake et al., 2008), inappropriate feeding practice either bottle feeding or breast feeding (Schroth and Moffatt, 2005, Mohebbi et al., 2008, Tyagi, 2008) and age of first visit to dental clinic (Rayner, 2003, Schroth and Moffatt, 2005) were related to the risk of dental caries especially in children. Parental attitudes towards oral health especially mother are is important to prevent occurrence of dental caries among children (Saied-Moallemi et al., 2008). 2.3.3 Environmental factors Environmental and cultural factors play a role in the development of caries. In newly industrialized countries, the incidence of dental caries increases when people previously eat a starchy staple foods and now move to refined carbohydrate diet. For most industrialized countries, high risk of caries related to persons in a lower socioeconomic and immigrant groups (Riva and Loveren, 2003). 2.4 The impact of early childhood caries to the children and parents Extensive dental decay among children, if left untreated will impact on both oral and general health, including quality of life. Physical function will affected because of pain, disturbed sleep, and difficulty to eat hard, hot and cold food. Mentally, dental caries cause fear and angry in children. The social functions also disturbed by missing preschool or day care, avoid playing with friends and not interested to join family activity. Emotionally, children disturbed with difficulty to say certain words (Cunnion et al., 2010). In other words, dental caries in children will effects physical, mental, social and emotional well being of the children. And most important things it causes lower quality of life of the children who are in growing stages. The impact of ECC on parents We know that parents contribute in their children oral health. But there are still limited study in investigating the relationship between the parents and their children oral health. (Schroth, 2007) found that parents with a better knowledge and attitude towards their children oral health more likely to have children with better oral health. In this study we are trying to explore the relationship between the parents oral health and their children oral health status. 2.5 The availability of children oral health related quality of life assessment Currently, there has been increase research development in measuring oral health related quality of life. The oral health-related quality of life (OHRQoL) instruments designed and used to investigate the impacts of oral problems in children, and recently have been designed to be use for 6-14 year old children. (Li et al., 2008, Easton et al., 2008, Klaassen et al., 2009, Cunnion et al., 2010). And very few have been developed for use in children mainly specifically for children age less than 6 years old. Child Oral Impacts on Daily Performances (Child-OIDP) were used to assess the prevalence and severity of the oral impacts in children age 10-12 years old. This questionnaire also can be used to assess oral health needs in population surveys, thus making it useful for planning services. The Child-OIDP assesses oral impacts on the following daily performances like eating, speaking, cleaning teeth, smiling, emotional stability, relaxing, doing schoolwork and social contact (BernabÃÆ' © et al., 2009). Instruments to assess oral health related negative impacts for children aged 3-5 years, recently was developed in the United States, in English language by (Pahel et al., 2007) called the Early Childhood Oral Health Impact Scale (ECOHIS) which derived from the Childhood Oral Health Quality of Life (COHQoL) instrument developed by (Jokovic et al., 2002). This questionnaire seems to be adequate to measure quality of life of children in the age 3-5 years old and their families. The instrument is short and concise to be completed by the childs parent or primary caregiver for use in epidemiological surveys to discriminate the quality of life between children with or without dental disease. (Li et al., 2008) was translated the English version of ECOHIS into French version for the questionnaire can be use in the French language population. (Klaassen et al., 2009) use ECOHIS questionnaire to explore whether oral health related quality of life in young children will improve after oral rehabil itation after general anesthesia. They also study any changes towards dental fear. Canadian researchers (Jokovic et al., 2002) have developed the Child Oral a health Quality of Life (COHQoL) questionnaire due to their concern about the measurement of child health status preciously was based on the reports by parents and caregivers. In their questionnaire, there are several questionnaires for parent or caregiver (Parental-Caregiver Perceptions Questionnaires, P-CPQ) and Family Impact Scale (FIS) for children aged 6-14 years and three Child Perceptions Questionnaires for children aged 6 to 7(CPQ6-7), 8 to 10 (CPQ8-10), and 11-14(CPQ11-14) years of age. The Infant Toddler Quality of Life (ITQoL) questionnaire was developed in year 1994 by Landgraf JM. ITQoL was designed to measure a quality of life for children as 2 months up to 5 years old. The ITQOL items and scales developed to measure physical function, growth and development, bodily pain, temperament and moods, behavior and general health perceptions. ITQOL also includes scales to measure parental impact (time and emotions). Study by (Raat et al., 2007), to evaluate feasibility, internal consistency, test-retest reliability, and concurrent and discriminative validity of the ITQoL, found five ITQoL scales showed a ceiling affect. They also suggest for developing and evaluating a shortened ITQoL version to reduce respondent burden. (Easton et al., 2008) were tried to ascertain reliability and validity of the ITQoL. They did a study among 2-6 years old Ohio, United State children to evaluate the effect of dental caries related to pain on pediatric quality of life. That study found that it was valid and reliable index among children there. 2.6 The role of parents to the children Children age less than 6 years old still depending on the family members especially their parents to take care of their oral health. Their inability to verbalize their emotions and needs increases their dependence on adult. Parents support and involvement in childs oral health are important in influencing the dental health of the child. Parents play a key role in attempts to achieve the best oral health outcomes for their young children (Cafferata and Kasper, 1985). Parents need to have an adequate knowledge and attitude towards the important of oral health for their children. Parents need to know the important of baby teeth and primary teeth tooth decay can impact childhood health. (Schroth, 2007) found that parents who believed that baby teeth are important were more likely to have children with better oral health (less decay) compared with those who thought otherwise. And parents of children with ECC were more likely to disagree that dental decay could affect a childs overall health. Brushing of young childrens teeth is important to prevent caries, but the parents cannot let their children do it by themselves. Parent need to be motivated and supportive enough to brush their childs teeth. The parents should belief that home oral hygiene is important and it is a parental duty to establish this behaviour with children (Huebner and Riedy, 2010). Their study also found that nearly all (91%) parents thought that brush a childs teeth twice daily a day was important, but only 55% reported that they did it every day. Parents reported that the most common barriers to tooth brushing were due to lack of time and uncooperative child. 2.4 Oral health related quality of life of the parents

Characteristics of Change Management Models

Characteristics of Change Management Models 1.1 Evaluate the characteristics and application of a range of change management models for different organisational structures. Organisational structure is there to determine how the roles, power and responsibility are assigned, controlled and coordinated and how information flows between the different levels of management. There are many different structures and this depends on the organisations objectives and strategy. Hierarchical this structure has a longer chain of command, each on a different level one above the other, like a pyramid. The advantages of this is authority and responsibility are clear and well defined, opportunity for promotion motivates employees and employees can specialise and develop expertise in their field. On the other hand the disadvantages are communication between departments may be less effective, decision making can take longer, may be harder to adapt and change or even rivalry between departments. Functional this is one of the most common especially in larger businesses they do this by dividing the business via departments such as sale, marketing, finance, human resources etc. The advantages of this structure is that it is specialised so departments focus on one area of work, productivity as they are specialised the staff are skilled in the tasks they perform, accountability there are clear lines of management and clarity everyone understands their roles. On the other hand the disadvantages may be closed communication, co-ordination may become difficult and they may be resistant to change. Flat this occurs when there are no management levels, when all staff report to one overall manager mainly seen in small businesses. The advantages to this structure are: better communication and relationship between different roles, simple, fast decision making process, easier to change and adapt. On the other hand the disadvantages may be that employees may be less specialised and it is difficult to maintain this structure as the company grows. I would say we are between a flat and hierarchical structure because we are still relatively a small business but growing, there are fewer levels of management. We have our directors, managers and room leaders so it is a fairly direct chain of command with leaders having access to the directors very easily as we all work very closely together but you can see as we grow levels will be added. Change management theories Business environments are constantly changing and evolving such as social media and mobile capability have changed they way we do business which means there is an ever increasing need to change and therefore change management. Change is a key source of competitive advantage and change is all about survival. There are several key change management models such as Kotter J.P.(2012) invented the eight step model for leading change. Create a sense of urgency if people think the organisation is doing fine there will be little motivation for change. It is important that your employees see the need for change. This is the most important and difficult step to make sure everyone is on the same page in order to make the change happen. Bring everyone together it is essential to have a strong leader to convince employee that the change is necessary. Create a clear vision and strategy having a clear vision allows people to remember easily what your are asking them to do. Communicate your vision to others- share the visions and make sure all staff understand what we are aiming for. It is important to talk about your vision often and use it daily to make decision and solve problems. Remove obstacles- to clear obstacles and have a can do attitude this will help empower employees execute your vision and move forward. Motivate with short term wins- this will build confidence and allowing staff achieve short term goals will give them a taste of success. You want it to be achievable with little room for failure, so that they will want to get to the final stage of the change process. Build on the change- saying the above you need to be careful not reward too early and keep moving forward and building on the change. Change to become the core of the organisation- to avoid old habits creeping back in the change that came in place needs to be imbedded into the heart of the company. The real change requires a subtle motivation driven approach and is broad based rather than narrow and built on inclusion. Therefore collaboration is the base for success and to achieve that there must be a wide spread perception for change. We need to look at our own competitive situation and effective communication is key to getting the word out and achieving employee engagement. Change is only possible if everyone participates. In relation to how this Kotters change model is suitable for a change process with our organisational structure can be shown through an example of change we have currently put into action in our company. As part of a requirement by our governing body in the childcare industry we must keep a learning journal for each child, tracking and tracing the developments in their learning during their time in our nursery. For many year this was a manual hand written process, each child had a large word processed book that our members of staff needed to complete throughout the childs duration in the nursery. We then needed to keep these records for numerous years. Looking back on this now it was a lot of paperwork and you need a lot of space to store these records. Over the last two years we have introduced a change in this form of record keeping procedure and are now processing everything on a on-line program called Tapestry. This on-line learning journal is an innovative, time effective and kind to the environment form of keeping these records. We can give this change as an example of how we can use Kotters theory to bring this change to life. As stage one says the hardest job of this change was to explain the need of it to the staff. It was important to educate the staff and get them to understand the urgency for this change. The urgency being to move with the times and go paper less and digital, this was a daunting thought for them as many did not have strong IT skills and feared this process being difficult. We need to match our competitors and make sure we were part of the change that was happening in the industry. This application Tapestry is not only for inputting information about a child but it has an interactive live element to it where parents can log in and see the work we are doing and their childs achievements. This was a major reason for us wanting to introduce this change so that we can improve our communication with parents and give them a live insight to what we do with the children in our setting. After numerous meetings and discussions with our staff they understood the need for this change which really helped us move forward. By educating them and giving them so much information about the program, training them how to use it and explaining the benefits to us all they all came on board excited to get started. We created a clear vision and made sure it was communicated and brought in to our daily working lives. We set them small and achievable steps to show them they can do it and motivated them with rewards for their achievements. We recognised the staff that did a great job and told them all that by working and helping each other we can be better.ÂÂ   We offered a lot of training in groups and one on one so that no one was left behind or struggling. We empowered them by setting deadlines for information about their key children to be inputted and then checked their work and give them feedback on their achievements. This really motivated them as they were proud of what they have accomplished and felt that we really took time out of our day to say well done. Now two year into this change we are about to go live to parents and are looking forward to this being the start of a new era. Using this programme has really become a part of our daily working life and cant imagine going back to the old way. There are so many ways we can and are moving forward in our industry today but this is just one example of how we can manage change. In saying the above we can look at how Kubler-Ross (1960) change curve model can be discussed in relation to the example of us changing programs to Tapestry. Kubler- Ross Change Curve is a reliable tool to understand change and the stages associated with it, it is about us being able to help our employees adapt to change and move towards success. As we can see from the model above it is translated into the 5 stages of the grieving process. The 5 stages included in this model are denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance, this also holds true when it comes to business or employment and we need to understand during the change process at what stage our employees are at. If our employees do not make personal changes or transitions during our change process we will not see the benefits of this change or move forward. It is important to support our staff through every stage of any change we implement in order for us to ensure success, this can be shown in the amount of training we invest in and support we give our staff to give them the tools they need to achieve. Â   At stage one this can be shock or denial to the fact that change needs to occur and they may need to adapt to something new. Information is key at this stage, it will take time to digest and giving them knowledge and constantly communicating will empower them to be confident in the change. Stage two once all has settled and everything becomes clear they may begin to feel fear of what lies ahead of them. It is natural to panic and believe that you can not make this change happen and question yourself and your capability. It can also make them feel anger or resentful because they may have been comfortable in what they were doing and change means learning something new. This is an important stage to manage and ensure it is controlled so that employees stick with you. Once again communication is essential. Stage three at this point employees understand the change and may start to bargain and possibly learn only what they think is necessary. This is when training is key and vital to ensure that everyone receives the best information and access to mentoring. It is important not to rush this stage and why we have taken nearly two years for our staff to trial the program before it goes live to parents. Allowing them to make mistakes and learn from them so that we are well equipped when this system is introduced. Stage four is the point at which moral and motivation can be low so when providing our training we try and make it as interactive and fun as possible so not only do they remember what is being taught but enjoy themselves in the process meaning they will do their best. Stage five is when we all really start to embrace the change and when we will really start moving forward. There are numerous other theories available for us to look at when discussing change management but for the two that I have analysed we can clearly see the difference between the two model but their relevance and importance are still the same in the example I have given regarding Tapestry. In conclusion it has shown me that when it comes to any change within the organisation we need to ensure everyone is on board, educated, supported and enthusiastic about the project in order for it to succeed. Change can not be made to happen by one person it takes the whole company to want to come together to move us forward, therefore we need to make sure we are able to manage the change/project, our staff and ourselves throughout the whole process. 1.2 Analyse stakeholder mapping techniques used for managing and evaluating change When it comes to managing projects and implementing ideas the actions you take can effect a lot of people and some of these people will have more influence over the success of our project more than others. Therefore knowing who these people areÂÂ   before you start is incredibly important. This is because you are more likely to succeed if you have the support of your key stakeholders.ÂÂ   Stakeholders are people interested in our business they can be internal i.e. employees and owners or external i.e. suppliers, customers and government. It is important to understand who our key stakeholders are, this is where you would use a stakeholders map. The actions you take when you look at the power versus interest the stakeholder has being high or low. Stakeholder Power and Interest Mapping Bryson (2004) (Sourced: Mindtools.com) From the drawing above you can see there are four types of stakeholders, those of:Â   High power/high interest these are your most important stakeholders that you should keep informed and close to your project. For us this would be our Directors and managers High power/low interest these stakeholders are to be kept satisfied, their power is high so they can influence your project but their interest is low so this is unlikely. Low power/high interest keep these people informed as this can support your project. For us this would be our employees and customers. Low power/low interest to be monitored with little effort as these stakeholders cant influence your project and are unlikely to be involved. This analytical tool will help you better understand where to focus your energy and time. It is important to spend a lot of strategic effort thinking about where your real power is held and knowing how to keep our key stakeholders engaged. In relation to keeping them engaged we need to ensure we are communicating with them using the right channels and tools of communication. The disadvantage of this tool is that unless you really know your stakeholders well you can place them incorrectly on your grid. A common mistake is by putting a stakeholder where you want them to be not where they really should be. Thats why it is important to know who they are, meet them, interview them and understand their values and beliefs, this knowledge will help place them in the correct position on the grid and will really give us a clear picture of who to focus on. In regards to managing and evaluating change such as the example I gave above of us introducing a new on-line learning journal Tapestry I would use this grid to pin point all stakeholders and approach them about my project. I would do research on their thoughts and ideas for this new system and use this information to make my decisions. Making informative decisions is the key to success and having lots of information from the relevant people will make my project and change run smoothly. The more preparation we take at this beginning stage the easier the transition will be to make a big change in our business. Stakeholder Salience model (Mitchell 1997) Unlike the power/interest grid above this model uses three parameters to categorise: power is the ability to influence the business, legitimacy is the authority and level of involvement they have on a business and urgency is the time expected to respond to their expectations. Source: Creative communication From the diagram above where these three factors meet shows you who your ultimate stakeholder is and these are the people you need to focus on. The other type of stakeholder that should have your attention is the dominant one as their power and legitimacy is high but their urgency is low. 1.3 Analyse techniques to evaluate change It is important and vital for us to evaluate the changes we make and measure their results. We need to know if we were successful or not in order to learn for future projects. Evaluating ourselves and our projects allows to better make decisions and helps reduce uncertainty, increases learning and control of what we are doing. One method of evaluating change is through Key Performance Indicators (KPI) this is when measures can be set against our objective to see if they are working. We need to gather data and information over time. By doing this it gives us a snapshot of our company and give us warnings to something that may be wrong. We need to look at what the key factors of our business for us is our customers and ensuring that people keep enquiring and joining our nursery. We can measure the number of enquires we get and then look at the success rates of those enquirers, did they register and did they join the nursery? These questions and results will give us a clear picture of what we are doing wrong and how we can do better. What can come out of this is that we need more training for the people who are giving the nursery tours, educate them in marketing and sales techniques to ensure every person that steps through our door leaves wanting to be a part of our business.ÂÂ   When we look at a KPI we need to make sure they are meaningful to us and that we are tracking something that will help us make better decisions. In relation to the example I have been giving above use moving to using Tapestry we are currently at the piloting stage where we are going live to 4 parents to trial the system and learn about the other side the customers point of view, what do they see, how useful is it, what problems do they have using it etc. We are using this trial period to educate us before we go live to the whole nursery, we are selecting a variety of parents and children to get a broad perspective of their views. This evaluation stage is key to seeing if this change was worth the effort and time. Obviously before this point we are confident that we made the right choice to move the company forward in regards to technology and moving with the times but we could be wrong and that this system will not bring that many benefits but until we listen to our customer, ask the questions we need answering we will not know, we would be assuming. 1.4 Evaluate the relationship between change management, business continuity and crisis management This is a process of preparing for something that most likely will never happen, we may find this a waste of time but it is important. Change management as we have seen is about thoughtful planning, implementation, consultation and involvement of the people affected by the change. From this we have learnt that there are many theories and models to manage change but overall its about preparation which links into business continuity. Its all about being ready for example like the Y2K crisis everyone believed the whole world would shut down in the year 2000. Business continuity is about anticipating the worst and being as ready as you can for this. Anything that interrupts normal business activity such as power outages, system failure, natural disasters etc can happen and we need to think about this and be prepared. An example of something basic we do is fire drills, invacuations, risk assessment etc. These are small examples but if we are well prepared then it can not end in disaster. Crisis is not about if it will happen to you its about how, when and why will it happen. It may seem like a single event but its not it can set off a chain reaction. It is important to identify the things that are creating conditions where crisis can happen and proactively form a divert crisis portfolio. This about preparing for a wide era of crisis and pick up early warning signals, look at key assumptions, build a damage control plan, think and act. Coming out of a crisis well can really move your business forward or not being crisis prepared can damage our company to points of no return. Examples can be what if our utilities failed such as our toilets, heating etc, we need to have maintenance companies on hand to have things repaired quickly so that we dont need to close the nursery. This happened last week when on of our toilets broke, I have a contract with a company that can help with plumbers, electricians, decorators etc so if I call they can send me anyone to repair the problem. It is important that I am prepared if something goes wrong, closing the nursery is the last measure. I have to have contacts and information of people who can help me in times of need. Another crisis issue we deal with is recruitment, we can do our best to have a bank of staff CVs but once a staff member has handed notice we dont have long to find someone to replace them. The only way to avoid this crisis is about prediction and having good communication with your staff and knowing if they are unhappy or are looking to further their career. If we have this information then we will not b e surprised if they want to leave or we can try and get them to stay with incentives like pay increase, further training, promotions etc. This simple information can really make a difference to the way we prepare for these events. Knowledge is power and allows you to be in control. I need to know how to identify risk and how to handle them. We do daily risk assessments and check our building to make sure we are catching early signs of anything going wrong to ensure it doesnt become crisis point, its about being aware and proactive. Because we are taking these proactive measures everyday to instil trust in our employees, customers and stakeholders that we know what we are doing. If something was to happen we are well prepared and trained in handling the situations. If you are not prepared for the worst it can destroy your company and you will loss your reputation.

Post Traumatic Stress Disorder In Veterans :: Post-traumatic stress disorder, PTSD

For more than twenty years, Patricia Dietz, a wife of a Vietnam veteran, has suffered along with her husband the effects of post traumatic stress disorder. She has stated that, "It has changed everything; it has affected the rest of his and her life." Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) is when a person is haunted by his memories so badly that it affects not only the rest of his life, but others close to him as well. Any time there is a traumatic event, physical danger, or threat or personal danger, this disorder is able to appear in ones' life (USA Today Magazine). "A key factor is the persons' response to this event, whether it happens to them or they are witnesses to feelings of intense fear, helplessness, or horror" (USA Today Magazine). "To be classified as PTSD the symptoms must last longer than one month, and usually appear within six months to a year after the event" (USA Today Magazine). Jim Dwyer describes Traumatic memories as "frozen in time, waiting to thaw" (Block, Norris). "PTSD has become a common condition among the armed forces as well as the police, and it has spread throughout society" (Fitzpatrick). "After Vietnam, PTSD appeared and was rapidly taken over from the veterans" (Fitzpatrick). There are a large number of symptoms of PTSD. The Veterans symptoms can be identical to those symptoms experienced when the actual trauma was occurring (Panzarino). "[symptoms include] May be prone to insomnia, irritability, or outbursts of anger, difficulty concentrating, and an exaggerated startled response when shocked" (USA Today Magazine). Michael Wheeler, a Vietnam veteran, is divorced because of PTSD, he was having thoughts of suicide, he couldn't handle life, he thought he was going crazy (Block, Norris). More symptoms are night terrors (dreams), flashbacks, and recurrent/intrusive thoughts of traumatic events (USA Today Magazine). "Many PTSD sufferers develop depression and anxiety or obsessive/compulsive disorder, in addition to alcohol or drug problems" (USA Today Magazine). "Of all the Wars in which Americans have fought Vietnam was without a doubt the one in which soldiers experienced the greatest psychological difficulties" (Welsh 58). In the Vietnam war the enemy didn't have a uniform, they could be hidden in with some of your allies this caused a lot of confusion and led to the saying "I wasn't really sure what was going on," and is probably the key reason why there are so many PTSD sufferers (Welsh 58). Post Traumatic Stress Disorder In Veterans :: Post-traumatic stress disorder, PTSD For more than twenty years, Patricia Dietz, a wife of a Vietnam veteran, has suffered along with her husband the effects of post traumatic stress disorder. She has stated that, "It has changed everything; it has affected the rest of his and her life." Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) is when a person is haunted by his memories so badly that it affects not only the rest of his life, but others close to him as well. Any time there is a traumatic event, physical danger, or threat or personal danger, this disorder is able to appear in ones' life (USA Today Magazine). "A key factor is the persons' response to this event, whether it happens to them or they are witnesses to feelings of intense fear, helplessness, or horror" (USA Today Magazine). "To be classified as PTSD the symptoms must last longer than one month, and usually appear within six months to a year after the event" (USA Today Magazine). Jim Dwyer describes Traumatic memories as "frozen in time, waiting to thaw" (Block, Norris). "PTSD has become a common condition among the armed forces as well as the police, and it has spread throughout society" (Fitzpatrick). "After Vietnam, PTSD appeared and was rapidly taken over from the veterans" (Fitzpatrick). There are a large number of symptoms of PTSD. The Veterans symptoms can be identical to those symptoms experienced when the actual trauma was occurring (Panzarino). "[symptoms include] May be prone to insomnia, irritability, or outbursts of anger, difficulty concentrating, and an exaggerated startled response when shocked" (USA Today Magazine). Michael Wheeler, a Vietnam veteran, is divorced because of PTSD, he was having thoughts of suicide, he couldn't handle life, he thought he was going crazy (Block, Norris). More symptoms are night terrors (dreams), flashbacks, and recurrent/intrusive thoughts of traumatic events (USA Today Magazine). "Many PTSD sufferers develop depression and anxiety or obsessive/compulsive disorder, in addition to alcohol or drug problems" (USA Today Magazine). "Of all the Wars in which Americans have fought Vietnam was without a doubt the one in which soldiers experienced the greatest psychological difficulties" (Welsh 58). In the Vietnam war the enemy didn't have a uniform, they could be hidden in with some of your allies this caused a lot of confusion and led to the saying "I wasn't really sure what was going on," and is probably the key reason why there are so many PTSD sufferers (Welsh 58).

Things Fall Apart Essay -- essays research papers

The book â€Å"Things Fall Apart† by Chinua Achebe is a fictional look at the social and cultural life of an African tribe of the lower Niger River region. It depicts the every day life of the tribe and its members. It also shows the culture and customs of the tribe.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  The book focuses on one of the tribe members, Okonkwo. He is a well respected member of the tribe. Okonkwo is a good example of a respected member of the tribe who also has great renown. He is known as a great wrestler and warrior of the nine villages of the tribe. He is a very powerful and influential member.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Throughout the story, certain unfortunate events occur, preventing Okonkwo’s rise to the top. Those who knew his father knew him to be lazy and unmanly. This is something that Okonkwo would spend his life trying to change.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Okonkwo is depicted in the story to be a very strong and fearless man, ruling his household with a firm hand. He stifles any emotion that would make him seem weak or like a woman. He shows little affection toward his children and his wives.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  His greatest disappointment is the fact that his son is not turning out to be the man that Okonkwo wants him to be. He sees his father in his son, Nwoye, rather than himself. This is greatly displeasing to Okonkwo. This might be why Nwoye’s mother is never mentioned by name, since she produced a â€Å"woman† for a son. He does find that Ikeme... Things Fall Apart Essay -- essays research papers The book â€Å"Things Fall Apart† by Chinua Achebe is a fictional look at the social and cultural life of an African tribe of the lower Niger River region. It depicts the every day life of the tribe and its members. It also shows the culture and customs of the tribe.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  The book focuses on one of the tribe members, Okonkwo. He is a well respected member of the tribe. Okonkwo is a good example of a respected member of the tribe who also has great renown. He is known as a great wrestler and warrior of the nine villages of the tribe. He is a very powerful and influential member.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Throughout the story, certain unfortunate events occur, preventing Okonkwo’s rise to the top. Those who knew his father knew him to be lazy and unmanly. This is something that Okonkwo would spend his life trying to change.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Okonkwo is depicted in the story to be a very strong and fearless man, ruling his household with a firm hand. He stifles any emotion that would make him seem weak or like a woman. He shows little affection toward his children and his wives.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  His greatest disappointment is the fact that his son is not turning out to be the man that Okonkwo wants him to be. He sees his father in his son, Nwoye, rather than himself. This is greatly displeasing to Okonkwo. This might be why Nwoye’s mother is never mentioned by name, since she produced a â€Å"woman† for a son. He does find that Ikeme...

Econometrics – Vietnam Cpi

Hanoi University Faculty of Management and Tourism Vietnam's Consumer Price Index and Influencing Factors An Econometrics Report 5/11/2012 Tutorial 2 – BA09 Lecturer: Ms. Dao Thanh Binh Tutor: Ms. Tr? n Kim Anh Group members: Nguy? n Th? Ha Giang ID: 0904000018 Ngo Thi Mai Huong ID: 0904000039 Le Thanh Long ID: 0904000050 Bui Th? Huong Quyen ID: 0904000072 Hoang Minh Thanh ID: 0904000082 D? Dang Ti? n ID: 0904000089 Truong Cong Tu? n ID: 0904000091 Nguy? n Thanh Tuy? n ID: 0904000092 AcknowledgementFirst and foremost, we would like to express our gratitude to all those who gave us the possibility to complete this research. We would like to convey our sincere thanks to our lecturer Ms. Dao Thanh Binh, PhD, lecturer of Faculty of Management and Tourism, Hanoi University, for her conscientious and dedicated lectures. Without her valuable knowledge, this research cannot be accomplished. Our deepest gratitude also goes to our beloved tutor Ms. Tran Kim Anh, master. Her devoted inst ructions and support were of great help.Without her heart-felt assistance and encouragement, this paper would not be able to come to this result. Abstract In recent years, Vietnam’s inflation has increased to an alarming rate of two-digit, ranking itself one of 5 countries having the highest inflation rate in the world. That Consumer Price Index (CPI) has incessantly escalated is the primary reason for such worrying issue. Our project, therefore, is aimed at investigating and analyzing Vietnam’s CPI by testing the impact of following factors on CPI: USD/VND exchange rate, petrol price, rice price and money supply.Henceforth, a prediction about inflation rate drawing from CPI and affecting factors analysis may be given to help us better prepare for problems that can occur as a result of distressing inflation. The model that can best illustrate relationship between the independent variables and CPI has been detected. Basing on our research, it is apparent that those four variables have a significant influence on Consumer Price Index. Table of Contents Acknowledgementii Abstractiii List of Tables and Figuresv 1. Introduction1 2. Methodology2 2. 1. Method of collecting data and other sources2 . 2. Methods of processing the data2 3. Data analysis3 3. 1. Consumer Price Index3 3. 2. Exchange rate4 3. 3. Petrol price5 3. 4. Rice price6 3. 5. Money supply7 4. Model specification7 4. 1. Variables and relationships7 4. 2. Model selection8 5. Regression interpretation and hypothesis testing13 5. 1. Regression function coefficients interpretation13 5. 2. Hypothesis testing13 5. 2. 1. Significance test of individual coefficients13 5. 2. 2. Significance test of overall model15 5. 2. 3. Test of dropping insignificant variable16 6. Errors and limitation17 6. 1. Limitations17 6. 2.Errors and remedials18 6. 2. 1. Multicollinearity18 6. 2. 2. Heteroskedasticity20 6. 2. 3. Autocorrelation21 7. Conclusion24 Appendixa Referencesb List of Tables and Figures Table 1: EVi ew regression result: Lin-lin model9 Table 2: EView regression result: Log-log model10 Table 3: EView regression result: Lin-log model11 Table 4: EView regression result: Log-lin model12 Table 5: R2 and CV comparison between models12 Table 6: EView regression result: New model16 Table 7: EView regression result: P-R,MS18 Table 8: EView regression result: R-P,MS19 Table 9: EView regression result: MS-P,R19Table 10: EView White Heteroskedasticity Test (without cross terms)21 Table 11: EView regression result: Durbin-Watson statistic22 Table 12: Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM test: Lags 223 Figure 1: Vietnam CPI from 2000 to 20103 Figure 2: Vietnam's USD Exchange rate from 2000 to 20104 Figure 3: Vietnam's retail petrol price from 2000 to 20105 Figure 4: Vietnam's rice price from 2000 to 20106 Figure 5: Vietnam's money supply from 2000 to 2010 (in VND billion)7 1. Introduction Every nation worldwide has ever confronted with inflation and attempting to solve inflation problem.Vie tnam is not an exception. Inflation has proved to be one of the most concerned issues by both Vietnamese government and economists for nearly a decade as it has tendency towards ceaselessly inflating since 2004. Inflation is an increase in overall prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. Inflation rate during a year will probably rise if there is a escalation in Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that year comparing to previous year, basing on following formula: InflationYear 2=CPIYear 2-CPIYear 1CPIYear 1Therefore, understanding the nature of inflation and efficiently anticipating it can essentially improve and strengthen the economy in generally, guiding business towards better strategy, as well as helping people adapt to price change in particular. Not only is CPI a powerful tool for government and economic experts to observe the whole society’s level of consumption, but it also, more importantly, predict the inflation rate that may have a considerable impact on the whole economy as well as the people’s daily lives.According to World Bank and International Monetary Funds (IMF), however, Vietnam is listed in high-inflation zone with a growing CPI. As for IMF’s facts, Vietnam’s CPI in August 2011 went up by 23. 02% compared to the same month of 2010; CPI in December 2011 also increased by 15. 68% compared to 2010. Besides, Vietnam’s economy has witnessed a simultaneous boost in price of goods and petrol throughout the year, together with decreasing purchasing power in recent years. Do these facts indicate a bad situation for Vietnam? We probably do not know for sure.We, instead, can help develop a more optimistic economy from the prediction of CPI as well as inflation rate of Vietnam. From such above serious facts and figures, this project is conducted to analyze Vietnam’s CPI and factors affecting CPI, then, giving prediction about Vietnam’s inflation rate by forming an overall picture of v ariations in people’s living expenditure, thus assist judging the possibility of inflation which may collapse even a huge economy of Vietnam due to the case of hyperinflation. 2. Methodology 2. 1. Method of collecting data and other sourcesAs discussed earlier and will be examined deeper later in this paper, there are some factors that play an important role in deciding the level of consumer price index in Vietnam. They consist of the movement of exchange rate (specifically, the USD/VND exchange rate), the price of petrol in Vietnam which is very critical, the Vietnamese rice price and governmental money supply. Through the application of econometric theories along with the examination of each single factor, the model can be formed as follow: CPI=? 1+? 2? ER+? 3? P+? 4? R+? 5? MS+?In order to gather the information regarding the four factors (independent variables), a number of data have been collected in the period 2000 – 2010: * The annual Vietnamese USD/VND exchange rate; * The annual Vietnamese rice price; * The annual money supply of Vietnamese government and other institutions; * The annual petrol price of Vietnam. All the data gathered have been found from various sources on trusted websites, in which we can count on the reliability and accuracy of the statistics and other related information. 2. 2. Methods of processing the data The data gathered above are just raw data.Therefore, in order to make prediction about the level of CPI in Vietnam accurately, some processes and calculation surely need to be made. First time, the raw data ought to be processed through the power of such computational tools as Eview and Microsoft Excel. Particularly, Microsoft Excel will help determine the trend in the independent variables (exchange rate, rice price, money supply and petrol price) as they change throughout the years and other necessary computation whereas Eview and its econometric calculations assist in figuring out some critical indicators (t-st atistic, R squared, adjusted R squared, p-value, etc. . After having those numbers and indices, two tests (the t-test and the f-test) are professionally used to make out not only the degree of significance of each independent variable but also the overall meaningfulness that all the independent variables contribute to the determination of CPI. From then on, it should be more convenient for us to make some anticipation about the trend of CPI in Vietnam based on the processed data we made. 3. Data analysis 3. 1. Consumer Price Index Figure [ 1 ]: Vietnam CPI from 2000 to 2010First of all, the consumer price index (CPI) measures of the overall cost of the goods and services bought by a typical consumer. In fact, it provides information about price changes in the nation’s economy to government, business, labor and private citizens and is used by them as a guide to making economic decisions. Therefore, analyzing CPI is very important this aids in formulating fiscal and monetary po licies. As can be seen from the chart, there was a steady increase in the CPI from 2000 to 2010. In other word, the typical family has to spend more dollars to maintain the same standard of living during 10 years.To specify, after undergoing a slight growth in the first fourth years from 100 to about 110, CPI increased significantly to a peak of around 210 in the last year. There are many factors including exchange rate, money supply, rice price and petrol price which cause this growth in CPI are being concerned. 3. 2. Exchange rate Figure [ 2 ]: Vietnam's USD Exchange rate from 2000 to 2010 According to the data compiled from 2000 to 2010, the exchange rate of USD/VND experienced an upward trend. In 2000, the USD/VND exchange rate was VND 14,170, then increased by 4% and 5% in 2002 and 2003 respectively.From 2003 to 2008, the exchange rate remained stable around VND 15,700 which can be explained by some rationales. First of all, Vietnam central bank manipulated the market by sellin g USD and tried to adjust the exchange rate unchanged in following years (vietcombank, 2002). Moreover, due to the US economic instability and USD depreciation against other currencies, VND depreciated less than expected. In 2009, the exchange rate underwent a surge to VND17, 066 and continued increasing dramatically to VND 18,620 in 2010.Though the central bank implemented many policies to stabilize the exchange rate, it still rose significantly since many citizens had speculated the USD and waited until it appreciated much more against VND (scribd, 2010). Another reason is the real demand in USD due to the increase in exported products and labours. According to Mr Nguyen Van Binh, vice president of the Central Bank, increasing exchange rate is an effective tool crafted by the central bank to boost export and economic development (luattaichinh, 2009). 3. . Petrol price Figure [ 3 ]: Vietnam's retail petrol price from 2000 to 2010 According to the data accumulated, the gasoline pric e generally has an upward trend though the 11-year period from 2000 to 2010 Over the first 4 years from 2000 to 2003, the price of gasoline remained the same or changed not much. The 4 years of price stability had experienced the dramatic change, which was a huge increase to 122. 2% in 2006 (from 5,400 to 12000 VND). From that point of time, the gasoline price slightly felt to 11,300 in 2007.This is, however, followed by a significant growth from 11,300 to 16,320 VND in 2008 and fluctuated in the duration of 2008 and 2010. In conclusion, the price of gasoline in Vietnam is predicted to be continuing to grow over the next few years. 3. 4. Rice price Figure [ 4 ]: Vietnam's rice price from 2000 to 2010 According to the data compiled, the rice price has an upward trend though the 10-year period from 2000 to 2010. The price of rice sold was fairly steady over the first 3 years from 2000 to 2003 with a slight rise to 100. 6%. This stability was followed by a sudden increase to 122. % in 2006. This trend was strengthenedby the fact that Vietnam became an official member of World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2007( BBC 2007), which rocketed Vietnam’s inflation to 12. 6% (ThuyTrang 2008). In addition, 2007–2008 world food price crises contributed a part in the growth of world food price in general and rice price in Vietnam in particular ( Compton etc. 2010, p. 20), leading to a remarkable rise on Vietnamese rice price to 215. 2% in 2008, and 251. 8% in 2010. To sum up, the Vietnamese rice shot up over 2. 5 times from 2000 (100%) to 2010 (215. %) and this trend is surmised to still keep going on in next few years. 3. 5. Money supply Figure [ 5 ]: Vietnam's money supply from 2000 to 2010 (in VND billion) Starting with nearly $ 200,000 billion in 2000, the amount of money in the economy saw a slight rise between 2001 and 2004 but money supply still lower than $ 500,000 million, before ending with a significant increase for the last period and reaching at $ 2, 478,310 billion in 2010. With the amount of money in market increasing by from 15% to 50% each year; Vietnamese have more money to spend and price level also affected. 4.Model specification 4. 1. Variables and relationships In order to study the movements of CPI in Vietnam, it is essential to evaluate the factors that drive the changes in CPI. a) USD/VND exchange rate It is easily seen that Vietnam has suffered from a great trade deficit which means import being more than export. Therefore, if the exchange rate USD/VND increases, which can be explained as VND depreciates against USD; imported products will be more expensive than before. Since imported products exceed exported products, Vietnamese consumers have to suffer from higher price of all imported products.By that, domestic producers as the result will take advantage of this moment to increase the price of domestic products to compete with other foreign products. Tradable goods being half the basket of the CPI will increase t he price which leads to the surge in the CPI. b) Petrol price Almost all the products directly or indirectly need the use of petrol as the main fuel for transportation, production or substitute fuel for electricity, coal, etc. If the price of petrol increases, the cost of production will experience a rise as well.Hence, the producers will increase the prices of goods to compensate for the increase in production cost which contributes to higher CPI. c) Rice price One of the main categories that are included in the basket of goods when calculating CPI is food. Vietnam is a country where people consume rice as the main food in daily meals, thus the change in rice price will affect the CPI of Vietnam. d) Money supply Lastly, as CPI is heavily dependent on the prices of goods and services, money supply is also one of the factors that have effect on CPI.This can be explained by the fact that the higher supply of money there is on the market, the lower the value of Vietnam currency is. As Vietnam Dong depreciates, prices of goods and services will be higher and vice versa. As a result, money supply changes lead to CPI changes. 4. 2. Model selection From the identification of the factors affecting CPI above, the variables will be denoted as follow: CPI: Consumer Price Index ER: Exchange rate of USD/VND P:Petrol price R: Rice price MS:Money supplyA number of possible models are applicable for the research, and in order to evaluate the appropriateness of each model, we based on 2 criteria: * R2: Coefficient of determination: The percentage of variation in CPI is explained by the model. * CV: Coefficient of variation: The average error of the sample regression function relative to the mean of Y. The model with higher R2 and lower CV is better. a) Lin-Lin model CPI=? 1+? 2? ER+? 3? P+? 4? R+? 5? MS+? The estimated regression result obtained from EView is: Dependent Variable: CPI| | | Method: Least Squares| | | Date: 05/07/12 Time: 22:20| | | Sample: 2000 2010| | |Included observations: 11| | | | | | | | | | | | | Variable| Coefficient| Std. Error| t-Statistic| Prob. | | | | | | | | | | | C| 49. 84103| 25. 60055| 1. 946873| 0. 0995| ER| 0. 000830| 0. 001632| 0. 508588| 0. 6292| P| 0. 002170| 0. 000396| 5. 480252| 0. 0015| R| 0. 236729| 0. 046411| 5. 100736| 0. 0022| MS| 2. 02E-05| 5. 21E-06| 3. 885527| 0. 0081| | | | | | | | | | | R-squared| 0. 998614|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Mean dependent var| 137. 9727| Adjusted R-squared| 0. 997691|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  S. D. dependent var| 39. 11026| S. E. of regression| 1. 879410|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Akaike info criterion| 4. 402748| Sum squared resid| 21. 19309|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Schwarz criterion| 4. 83610| Log likelihood| -19. 21511|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Hannan-Quinn criter. | 4. 288740| F-statistic| 1081. 125|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Durbin-Watson stat| 2. 490665| Prob(F-statistic)| 0. 000000| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Table [ 1 ]: EView regression result: Lin-lin model Regression function: CPI=49. 84103+0. 00083? ER+0. 00217? P+0. 236729 ? R+0. 00002? MS R2 = 0. 998614 CV=? Y=1. 879410137. 9727=0. 013622 b) Log-Log model ln(CPI)=? 1+? 2? ln(ER)+? 3? ln(P)+? 4? ln(R)+? 5? ln(MS)+? The estimated regression result obtained from EView is: Dependent Variable: LOG(CPI)| | | Method: Least Squares| | | Date: 05/07/12 Time: 22:22| | | Sample: 2000 2010| | |Included observations: 11| | | | | | | | | | | | | Variable| Coefficient| Std. Error| t-Statistic| Prob. | | | | | | | | | | | C| -1. 145265| 1. 841843| -0. 621804| 0. 5569| LOG(ER)| 0. 215912| 0. 205886| 1. 048698| 0. 3347| LOG(P)| 0. 089703| 0. 048661| 1. 843424| 0. 1148| LOG(R)| 0. 413783| 0. 038424| 10. 76876| 0. 0000| LOG(MS)| 0. 081931| 0. 034964| 2. 343304| 0. 0576| | | | | | | | | | | R-squared| 0. 998138|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Mean dependent var| 0. 489313| Adjusted R-squared| 0. 996897|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  S. D. dependent var| 0. 268175| S. E. of regression| 0. 014939|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Akaike info criterion| -5. 266690| Sum squared resid| 0. 01339|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Schwarz c riterion| -5. 085828| Log likelihood| 33. 96679|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Hannan-Quinn criter. | -5. 380698| F-statistic| 804. 0941|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Durbin-Watson stat| 2. 453663| Prob(F-statistic)| 0. 000000| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Table [ 2 ]: EView regression result: Log-log model Regression function: ln? (CPI)=-1. 145265+0. 215912? lnER+0. 089703? ln? (P)+0. 413783? ln? (R)+0. 081931? ln? (MS) R2 = 0. 998138 CV=? Y=0. 0149390. 489313=0. 030531 c) Lin-Log model CPI=? 1+? 2? ln(ER)+? 3? ln(P)+? 4? lnR+? 5? ln(MS)+? The estimated regression result obtained from EView is: Dependent Variable: CPI| | | Method: Least Squares| | |Date: 05/07/12 Time: 22:23| | | Sample: 2000 2010| | | Included observations: 11| | | | | | | | | | | | | Variable| Coefficient| Std. Error| t-Statistic| Prob. | | | | | | | | | | | C| -1186. 909| 420. 9102| -2. 819864| 0. 0304| LOG(ER)| 85. 49691| 47. 05046| 1. 817132| 0. 1191| LOG(P)| 9. 066673| 11. 12034| 0. 815324| 0. 4460| LOG(R)| 80. 80824| 8. 780996| 9. 202627 | 0. 0001| LOG(MS)| 1. 356787| 7. 990229| 0. 169806| 0. 8707| | | | | | | | | | | R-squared| 0. 995428|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Mean dependent var| 137. 9727| Adjusted R-squared| 0. 992380|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  S. D. dependent var| 39. 11026| S. E. of regression| 3. 414025|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Akaike info criterion| 5. 96616| Sum squared resid| 69. 93340|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Schwarz criterion| 5. 777478| Log likelihood| -25. 78139|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Hannan-Quinn criter. | 5. 482608| F-statistic| 326. 5862|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Durbin-Watson stat| 2. 282666| Prob(F-statistic)| 0. 000000| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Table [ 3 ]: EView regression result: Lin-log model Regression function: CPI=-1186. 909+85. 49691? ln? (ER)+9. 066673? lnP+80. 80824? ln? (R)+1. 356787? ln? (MS) R2 = 0. 995428 CV=? Y=3. 414025137. 9727=0. 024744 d) Log-Lin model ln(CPI)=? 1+? 2? ER+? 3? P+? 4? R+? 5? MS+? The estimated regression result obtained from EView is: Dependent Variable: LOG(CPI)| | |Method: Least Squares| | | Date: 05/07/12 Time: 22:23| | | Sample: 2000 2010| | | Included observations: 11| | | | | | | | | | | | | Variable| Coefficient| Std. Error| t-Statistic| Prob. | | | | | | | | | | | C| 4. 288043| 0. 311641| 13. 75958| 0. 0000| ER| 7. 55E-06| 1. 99E-05| 0. 379928| 0. 7171| P| 2. 76E-05| 4. 82E-06| 5. 717411| 0. 0012| R| 0. 000539| 0. 000565| 0. 953313| 0. 3772| MS| 1. 38E-07| 6. 34E-08| 2. 184042| 0. 0717| | | | | | | | | | | R-squared| 0. 995633|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Mean dependent var| 0. 489313| Adjusted R-squared| 0. 992722|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  S. D. dependent var| 0. 268175| S. E. of regression| 0. 22878|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Akaike info criterion| -4. 414290| Sum squared resid| 0. 003141|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Schwarz criterion| -4. 233428| Log likelihood| 29. 27859|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Hannan-Quinn criter. | -4. 528297| F-statistic| 341. 9975|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Durbin-Watson stat| 1. 798845| Prob(F-statistic)| 0. 000000| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Table [ 4 ]: EView regression result: Log-lin model Regression function : ln? (CPI)=4. 288043+0. 000075? ER+0. 000027? P+0. 000539? R+0. 000014? MS R2 = 0. 995633 CV=? Y=0. 0228780. 489313=0. 046755 To sum up, we have a comparison of R2 and CV among the models: | R2| CV| a| 0. 998614| 0. 013622| b| 0. 998138| 0. 030531| c| 0. 995428| 0. 24744| d| 0. 995633| 0. 046755| Table [ 5 ]: R2 and CV comparison between models From the results above, the model a) is the most appropriate model to explain the relationship between CPI the other factors: CPI=49. 84103+0. 00083? ER+0. 00217? P+0. 236729? R+0. 00002? MS 5. Regression interpretation and hypothesis testing 5. 1. Regression function coefficients interpretation The chosen Lin-Lin model and its interpretation are described as follow: CPI=49. 84103+0. 00083? ER+0. 00217? P+0. 236729? R+0. 00002? MS ?1=49. 84103: If exchange rate, petrol price, rice price and money supply equal 0 at the same time, CPI should be 49. 4103 on average. However, this does not make much economic sense as there is no situation that e xchange rate, petrol price, rice price or money supply could be equal to 0. ?2 = 0. 00083: Holding other variables constant, if exchange rate increases by 1 unit, CPI will increase by 0. 00083 units on average. ?3 = 0. 00217: Holding other variables constant, if price of petrol rises by 1 unit, CPI will increase by 0. 00217 units on average. ?4 = 0. 236729: Holding other variables constant, if rice price goes up by 1 unit, CPI will rise by 0. 236729 units on average. ?5 = 0. 0002: Holding other variables constant, if money supply increases by 1 unit, CPI will go up by 0. 00002 units on average. 5. 2. Hypothesis testing 5. 2. 1. Significance test of individual coefficients a) Test the individual significance of ? 2 * Step 1: H0: ? 2=0 Ha: ? 2? 0 * Step 2: T-statistic t-stat=? 2-? 2SE(? 2) * Step 3: Level of significance: ? = 5% * Step 4: Decision rule Reject H0 if t-stat;tc(? 2, n-k)=tc(0. 025, 6)=2. 447 * Step 5: T-stat value t=? 2-0Se(? 2)=0. 0008300. 001632=0. 508588 ; tc = 2. 447 * Step 6: Conclusion: Do not reject H0 at ? = 5%. There is not enough evidence to conclude that ? is significantly different from 0 and individually significant ? = 5%. b) Test the individual significance of ? 3 * Step 1: H0: ? 3=0 Ha: ? 3? 0 * Step 2: T-statistic t-stat=? 3-? 3SE(? 3) * Step 3: Level of significance: ? = 5% * Step 4: Decision rule Reject H0 if t-stat;tc(? 2, n-k)=tc(0. 025, 6)=2. 447 * Step 5: T-stat value t=? 3-0Se(? 3)=0. 0020170. 000396=5. 480252 ; tc = 2. 447 * Step 6: Conclusion: Reject H0 at ? = 5%. There is enough evidence to conclude that ? 3 is significantly different from 0 and individually significant ? = 5%. c) Test the individual significance of ? 4 * Step 1: H0: ? 4=0 Ha: ? ? 0 * Step 2: T-statistic t-stat=? 4-? 4SE(? 4) * Step 3: Level of significance: ? = 5% * Step 4: Decision rule Reject H0 if t-stat;tc(? 2, n-k)=tc(0. 025, 6)=2. 447 * Step 5: T-stat value t=? 4-0Se(? 4)=0. 2367290. 046411=5. 100736 ; tc = 2. 447 * Step 6: Conclusion: Reject H0 at ? = 5%. There is enough evidence to conclude that ? 4 is significantly different from 0 and individually significant ? = 5%. d) Test the individual significance of ? 5 * Step 1: H0: ? 5=0 Ha: ? 5? 0 * Step 2: T-statistic t-stat=? 5-? 5SE(? 5) * Step 3: Level of significance: ? = 5% * Step 4: Decision rule Reject H0 if t-stat;tc(? , n-k)=tc(0. 025, 6)=2. 447 * Step 5: T-stat value t=? 5-0Se(? 5)=2. 02? 10-55. 21? 10-6=3. 885527 ; tc = 2. 447 * Step 6: Conclusion: Reject H0 at ? = 5%. There is enough evidence to conclude that ? 5 is significantly different from 0 and individually significant ? = 5%. 5. 2. 2. Significance test of overall model * Step 1: H0: ? 2=? 3=? 4=? 5=0 Ha: i? 0 * Step 2: F-statistic f-stat=R2/(k-1)(1-R2)/(n-k) * Step 3: Level of significance: ? = 5% * Step 4: Decision rule Reject H0 if f-stat;fc(? ,k-1,n-k)=fc(0. 05,4,6)=4. 53 * Step 5: F-stat value f-stat=0. 998614/(5-1)(1-0. 998614)/(11-6)=1081. 125;fc=4. 3 * Step 6: Conclusion Reject H0 at ? = 5%. There is e nough evidence to conclude that at least one coefficient is different from 0 and the overall model is statistically significant. 5. 2. 3. Test of dropping insignificant variable From the test above, we drew the conclusion that ? 2 is insignificant. Thus, an F-test of dropping the independent variable of Exchange rate from the model will be conducted. The regression results obtained from EView of the new model is: Dependent Variable: CPI| | | Method: Least Squares| | | Date: 05/09/12 Time: 11:07| | | Sample: 2000 2010| | | Included observations: 11| | | | | | | | | | | | Variable| Coefficient| Std. Error| t-Statistic| Prob. | | | | | | | | | | | C| 62. 73309| 3. 386991| 18. 52178| 0. 0000| P| 0. 002123| 0. 000364| 5. 828831| 0. 0006| R| 0. 229613| 0. 041843| 5. 487545| 0. 0009| MS| 2. 22E-05| 3. 29E-06| 6. 758719| 0. 0003| | | | | | | | | | | R-squared| 0. 998555|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Mean dependent var| 137. 9727| Adjusted R-squared| 0. 997935|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  S. D. dependent var| 39. 11 026| S. E. of regression| 1. 777106|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Akaike info criterion| 4. 263137| Sum squared resid| 22. 10674|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Schwarz criterion| 4. 407826| Log likelihood| -19. 44725|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Hannan-Quinn criter. | 4. 171931| F-statistic| 1612. 50|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Durbin-Watson stat| 2. 175208| Prob(F-statistic)| 0. 000000| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Table [ 6 ]: EView regression result: New model The old model is: CPI=49. 84103+0. 00083? ER+0. 00217? P+0. 236729? R+0. 00002? MS with R2 = 0. 998614 The new model is: CPI=62. 73309+0. 002123? P+0. 229613? R+0. 00002? MS with R2 = 0. 998555 * Step 1: H0: ? 2 = 0 Ha: ? 2 ? 0 * Step 2: F-statistic F*=(R2unrestricted-R2restricted)/Number of dropped regressors(1-R2unrestricted)/(n-k) * Step 3: Level of significance ? = 5% * Step 4: Decision rule Reject H0 if F* ; Fc(? ,No,n-k) = Fc(0. 05,1,11-4) = 5. 59 * Step 5: F* value F*=(0. 98614-0. 998555)/1(1-0. 998614)/(11-4)=0. 29798 * Step 6: Conclusion F* ; Fc Do not reject H0 at ? = 5%. It is statistically reasonable to drop Exchange Rate variable from the model. The new model obtained is:CPI=62. 73309+0. 002123? P+0. 229613? R+0. 00002? MS| 6. Errors and limitation 6. 1. Limitations In spite of the results and discussion mentioned above, our report in general and our model in particular have their limitations that hinder our group to develop the most effective model. First and foremost, in data analysis, we presented a table of 1 dependent variable and 4 independent variables during the period of 2000-2010.In total, we have only collected 11 observations annually and the variables sometimes do not have the similar observations. It is obvious to state that the larger the sample size the higher the probability that our sample statistics get close to the true value or population parameters. For such reason, our small number observations may result in inaccuracy of the model. Furthermore, there exists mutual effects among the independent variables. For instance , the Money supply may have an effect on the Exchange rate. Additionally, the Rice price is also influenced by the Petrol price because petrol is the main energy source for production, etc.Such problems may falsify our results and they will be discussed further in the section of errors and remedies. To conclude, even though limitations exist, the foundation of our model is statistically undeniable. Nevertheless, any new econometric model constructed by us in the future will be designed and eliminated all negative limitations. 6. 2. Errors and remedials 6. 2. 1. Multicollinearity Multicollinearity exists due to some functional the existence of linear relationship among some or all independent variables. Multicollinearity can cause many consequences.For instance, OLS estimators have large variances and covariances, making the estimation with less accuracy. This error can lead to large variances and covariances, making the estimation with less accuracy. In order to detect the existence of multicollinearity, a simple tool of detection which is VIF can be applied. Beforehand, a number of auxiliary regressions that depict the relation ship between the independent variables must be done. Dependent Variable: P| | | Method: Least Squares| | | Date: 05/09/12 Time: 12:23| | | Sample: 2000 2010| | | Included observations: 11| | | | | | | | | | | | | Variable| Coefficient| Std.Error| t-Statistic| Prob. | | | | | | | | | | | C| 2529. 790| 3163. 446| 0. 799695| 0. 4470| R| 28. 45504| 39. 34718| 0. 723179| 0. 4902| MS| 0. 003706| 0. 002908| 1. 274322| 0. 2383| | | | | | | | | | | R-squared| 0. 890213|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Mean dependent var| 10088. 18| Adjusted R-squared| 0. 862766|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  S. D. dependent var| 4656. 172| S. E. of regression| 1724. 882|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Akaike info criterion| 17. 97071| Sum squared resid| 23801730|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Schwarz criterion| 18. 07922| Log likelihood| -95. 83888|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Hannan-Quinn criter. | 17. 90230| F-statistic| 32. 434 22|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Durbin-Watson stat| 1. 144479| Prob(F-statistic)| 0. 00145| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Table [ 7 ]: EView regression result: P-R,MS VIFP=11-R2P,R,MS=11-0. 890213=9. 10855;10 Dependent Variable: R| | | Method: Least Squares| | | Date: 05/09/12 Time: 13:11| | | Sample: 2000 2010| | | Included observations: 11| | | | | | | | | | | | | Variable| Coefficient| Std. Error| t-Statistic| Prob. | | | | | | | | | | | C| 67. 25990| 15. 92311| 4. 224043| 0. 0029| P| 0. 002156| 0. 002982| 0. 723179| 0. 4902| MS| 5. 93E-05| 1. 82E-05| 3. 250317| 0. 0117| | | | | | | | | | | R-squared| 0. 943086|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Mean dependent var| 144. 2364| Adjusted R-squared| 0. 928858|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  S. D. ependent var| 56. 29715| S. E. of regression| 15. 01585|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Akaike info criterion| 8. 483090| Sum squared resid| 1803. 805|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Schwarz criterion| 8. 591607| Log likelihood| -43. 65699|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Hannan-Quinn criter. | 8. 414685| F-statistic| 66. 28185|   Ã ‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Durbin-Watson stat| 1. 625481| Prob(F-statistic)| 0. 000010| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Table [ 8 ]: EView regression result: R-P,MS VIFR=11-R2R,P,MS=11-0. 943086=17. 57047;10 Dependent Variable: MS| | | Method: Least Squares| | | Date: 05/09/12 Time: 13:13| | | Sample: 2000 2010| | | Included observations: 11| | | | | | | | | | | | | Variable| Coefficient| Std.Error| t-Statistic| Prob. | | | | | | | | | | | C| -912567. 0| 169274. 2| -5. 391058| 0. 0007| P| 45. 52633| 35. 72593| 1. 274322| 0. 2383| R| 9603. 994| 2954. 787| 3. 250317| 0. 0117| | | | | | | | | | | R-squared| 0. 949597|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Mean dependent var| 931956. 0| Adjusted R-squared| 0. 936996|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  S. D. dependent var| 761613. 1| S. E. of regression| 191169. 4|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Akaike info criterion| 27. 38671| Sum squared resid| 2. 92E+11|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Schwarz criterion| 27. 49522| Log likelihood| -147. 6269|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Hannan-Quinn criter. | 27. 31830| F-statistic| 75. 36010|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Durbin-Watson stat| 2. 509023| Prob(F-statistic)| 0. 00006| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Table [ 9 ]: EView regression result: MS-P,R VIFMS=11-R2MS,P,R=11-0. 949597=19. 84009;10 From the results above, we see that VIFP ; 10 whereas VIFR, VIFMS ; 10. Thus multicollinearity does not exist for Petrol variable, while multicollinearity exists for Rice and Money Supply variables. This can be explained by the fact that Petrol price is not influenced by other factors whilst Rice and Money Supply are influenced by Petrol price, as petrol is one of the main sources of energy for production of other goods and services. In general, multicollinearity does exist in the model.Nevertheless, the sole purpose of our research is for prediction and forecasting the inflation level of Vietnam based on CPI and the factors affecting CPI. Therefore, multicollinearity is not a serious issue for our research and we decided to take no action to fix the problem. 6. 2. 2. Heteroskedasticity Heteroskedasticity makes economic models violate one assumption which is homoskedasticity of equal variance of error terms. Heteroskedasticity causes ordinary least squares estimates of the variance (and, thus, standard errors) of the coefficients to be biased, possibly above or below the true or population variance.As the consequence, biased standard error estimation can lead to both type I error (reject the true hypothesis) and type II error (do not reject false hypothesis). To detect the heteroskedasticity, there are a number of methods that can be applied. Among them, we chose White's Heteroskedasticity Test (without cross terms) to detect the existence of heteroskedasticity. * Step 1: H0: Homoskedasticity. Ha: Heteroskedasticity. * Step 2: Run the OLS on regression to obtain residual ui Run the auxiliary regression to get the new model u2=? 1+? 2X2i+†¦ + ? qXqi+? q-1X22i+†¦ +? 2q-1X2qi+vi H0:? 2=? 3=†¦ = ? q W-statistic: W=n?R2(R2 of the new model) * Step 3: Level of significance ? = 5% * Step 4: Decision rule Reject H0 if W>? 2? ,df=? 20. 05,6=12. 5916 * Step 5: W-statistic value From the results of EView, we have White Heteroskedasticity Test:| F-statistic| 0. 609507| Probability| 0. 720319| Obs*R-squared| 5. 253654| Probability| 0. 511716| | | | | | Test Equation:| Dependent Variable: RESID^2| Method: Least Squares| Date: 05/09/12 Time: 19:52| Sample: 2000 2010| Included observations: 11| Variable| Coefficient| Std. Error| t-Statistic| Prob. | C| -51. 06331| 66. 56641| -0. 767103| 0. 4858| P| -0. 003894| 0. 005892| -0. 60928| 0. 5448| P^2| 1. 82E-07| 3. 29E-07| 0. 552995| 0. 6097| R| 1. 041681| 1. 113821| 0. 935232| 0. 4026| R^2| -0. 003233| 0. 003599| -0. 898302| 0. 4198| MS| -1. 70E-05| 3. 45E-05| -0. 490921| 0. 6492| MS^2| 8. 86E-12| 1. 31E-11| 0. 676092| 0. 5361| R-squared| 0. 477605| Mean dependent var| 2. 009703| Adjusted R-squared| -0. 305988| S. D. dependent var| 3. 115326| S. E. of regression| 3. 560188| Akaike info criterion| 5. 638630| Sum squa red resid| 50. 69977| Schwarz criterion| 5. 891836| Log likelihood| -24. 01247| F-statistic| 0. 609507| Durbin-Watson stat| 2. 651900| Prob(F-statistic)| 0. 20319| Table [ 10 ]: EView White Heteroskedasticity Test (without cross terms) W=n? R2=5. 253654 4 – dU: Reject H0 * dU < d < 4 – dU: Do not reject H0 * dL ? d ? dU or 4 – dU ? d ? 4 – dL: Inconclusive k' = 3, df = 11. dL = 0. 595;dU = 1. 928 * Step 5: D-statistic value From EView table, we have D-statistic = 2. 175208 * Step 6: Conclusion We have 4 – dU = 4 – 1. 928 = 2. 072 4 – dL = 4 – 0. 595 = 3. 405 4 – dU ? d ? 4 – dL. There is not enough evidence to conclude whether first-order autocorrelation exists or not. b. Breusch-Godfrey test Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:| | | | | | | | | | | | F-statistic| 0. 399592|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Prob. F(2,5)| 0. 6903| Obs*R-squared| 1. 515907|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Prob.Chi-Square(2)| 0. 4686| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Test Equation:| | | | Dependent Variable: RESID| | | Method: Least Squares| | | Date: 05/09/12 Time: 14:40| | | Sample: 2000 2010| | | Included observations: 11| | | Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero. | | | | | | | | | | | Variable| Coefficient| Std. Error| t-Statistic| Prob. | | | | | | | | | | | C| 0. 366991| 3. 997023| 0. 091816| 0. 9304| P| 0. 000262| 0. 000749| 0. 349805| 0. 7407| R| -0. 020687| 0. 052521| -0. 393881| 0. 7099| MS| -1. 21E-07| 4. 84E-06| -0. 025029| 0. 9810| RESID(-1)| -0. 121687| 0. 700832| -0. 173632| 0. 8690|RESID(-2)| -0. 759777| 1. 305304| -0. 582069| 0. 5858| | | | | | | | | | | R-squared| 0. 137810|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Mean dependent var| -5. 51E-15| Adjusted R-squared| -0. 724381|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  S. D. dependent var| 1. 486833| S. E. of regression| 1. 952445|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Akaike info criterion| 4. 478494| Sum squared resid| 19. 06021|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Schwarz criterion| 4. 695528| Log likelihood| -18. 63172|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Hannan- Quinn criter. | 4. 341685| F-statistic| 0. 159837|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Durbin-Watson stat| 1. 950970| Prob(F-statistic)| 0. 967201| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Table [ 12 ]: Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM test: Lags 2 * Step 1: Identify Ho and Ha:Ho: No second order autocorrelation Ha: Second order autocorrelation * Step 2: Test statistic: BG – statistic = (n – p)* R2 (p = df = number of degree of order = 2) * Step 3: Significance level: ? = 5% * Step 4: Decision rule: Reject H0 if BG; ,p2=? 0. 05,22=5. 99174 * Step 5: BG-statistic value From EView table, we have BG = (11-2)*R2 = 9*0. 137810 = 1. 24029 ; 5. 99174 * Step 6: Conclusion Do not reject H0 at ? = 5%. There is not enough evidence to infer the existence of second-order autocorrelation. In addition, we also notice that the p-value of first-order is greater than 0. 5, thus the first-order autocorrelation does not exist either. To sum up, there is no autocorrelation error in the model. 7. Conclusion After thorou ghly investigating models and their significant, it can be inferred that the best appropriate model, which can well explain the relationship between CPI and affecting factors, is the following one: CPI=49. 84103+0. 00083? ER+0. 00217? P+0. 236729? R+0. 00002? MS Basing on the analysis, the model is proved to rather make sense as the fact that three independent variables, including petrol price, rice price and money supply, apparently affect Vietnam's CPI.After testing, the USD/VND exchange rate, nevertheless, is clearly insignificant. Consequently, the exchange rate is reasonably dropped out of the model. Moreover, all independent variables have positive relationship with CPI since the increase of any variables may result in growth of CPI. Besides the effectiveness and meaningfulness of the model, errors and limitation still exist. Multicollinearity is found out to be the considered issue, however, it is truly difficult to have any suitable remedial. And, two rest errors including h eteroscedasticity and autocorrelation are shown not to exist.It is the fact that the model is unavoidable to some errors and limitations, but these problems seem trivial and slight. From above analyzed data, the independent variables present a common trend of increasing, which leads to tendency of CPI to rise as well. Therefore, we insist that the CPI for the next years will boost. Despite Vietnamese government's important efforts to refrain the inflation rate, it is still essentially prone to escalate as a result of inevitable trend. Appendix Data of CPI, Exchange rate, Petrol price, Rice price and Money supply from 2000 to 2010Year| CPI| Exchange Rate| Petrol price| Rice price| Money supply (VND billion)| 2000| 100| 14,170. 23| 5400| 100| 196,994. 00| 2001| 102| 14,816. 76| 5400| 101| 250,846. 00| 2002| 104. 3| 15,346. 00| 5400| 101. 5| 284,144. 00| 2003| 107. 6| 15,475. 99| 5600| 100. 6| 378,060. 00| 2004| 115. 9| 15,704. 13| 7000| 114. 8| 495,447. 00| 2005| 125. 5| 15,816. 69| 1 0000| 118. 6| 648,574. 00| 2006| 134. 9| 15,963. 81| 12000| 122. 5| 841,011. 00| 2007| 146. 3| 16,126. 20| 11300| 142| 1,254,000. 00| 2008| 179. 6| 16,303. 54| 16320| 215. 2| 1,513,540. 00| 2009| 192| 17,066. 34| 15700| 218. 6| 1,910,590. 00| 2010| 209. | 18,620. 84| 16850| 251. 8| 2,478,310. 00| References BBC, 2007. Vietnam's WTO membership begins. Available online at URL: http://news. bbc. co. uk/2/hi/business/6249705. stm (Accessed May 4, 2012) Binh, N. V. 2009. Di? u hanh chinh sach t? gia nam 2008 va phuong hu? ng nam 2009. Available online at URL: http://luattaichinh. wordpress. com/2009/02/26/di%E1%BB%81u-hanh-chinh-sach-t%E1%BB%B7-gia-nam-2008-va-ph%C6%B0%C6%A1ng-h%C6%B0%E1%BB%9Bng-nam-2009/ (Accessed May 4, 2012) General Statistics Office of Vietnam, 2012. Trade, Price and Tourism statistical data. Available online at URL: http://www. so. gov. vn/default_en. aspx? tabid=472&idmid=3 (Accessed May 4, 2012) Gujarati, D. N. , 2003. Basic Econometrics – 4th edition. McGr aw-Hill Higher Education. Indexmundi, 2011. Vietnam – money and quasi money. Available online at URL: http://www. indexmundi. com/facts/vietnam/money-and-quasi-money (Accessed April 26, 2012) Phuoc, T. V. & Long, T. H. , 2010. Ch? s? gia tieu dung Vi? t Nam va cac y? u t? tac d? ng. Vietcombank, 2002. T? gia VND/USD ti? p t? c ? n d? nh tuong d? i. Available online at URL: http://www. vietcombank. com. vn/News/Vcb_News. aspx? ID=1489 (Accessed May 3, 2012)